Presentation – Multi-Family Market and Entitlement Study – No Funding Required

1:06:53Great job, Dave.

1:07:05Good morning again, uh Madam Chair, Nictorius Nictorious Pitos Planning and Development Department. Um

1:07:17Item 53 is the multifamily market entitlement study. To give a brief overview, right around this time last year, the Board of County Commissioners established a moratorium. over an area a certain area of the county um that was roughly between Cero 52 and 54 and uh approximately Land O' Lakes Boulevard and uh Bruce B. Downs. And within that moratorium, there was not going to be allowed any multifamily,

1:07:48uh, new multifamily comprehensive plan amendment amending or rezoning taking place. In September, uh, the moratorium was extended uh to April 1st of 2022. And in December, uh, December-January timeframe, there was an expansion of the moratorium area, which uh included the areas south of State Road fifty four. Um again approximately approximately from uh US forty one uh

1:08:18east to um Just beyond Bruce B. Downs, I think it was Norwich Bridge or so. Um those are the those are my rough general estimations of the Moritarian boundary, but there is a map included in the study. Uh during that time the Planning and Development Department worked with Kelvin Jordano Associates and Lambert Advisory to study the multifamily market within the moratorium area. And today we have with us Louis Cerna from

1:08:48Kelvin Jordano Associates, as well as Eric Lyft from Lambert Advisory, to walk us through the multifamily market and entitlement study. And they'll do the presentation and if there are any questions thereafter, we can proceed.

1:09:09To my left.

1:09:16Good morning, Commissioners. Louise Cerna with Calvin Giordano and Associates in Clearwater. Together with Lambert Advisory and working closely with county staff, we have prepared these this housing entitlement and housing study that you have. I believe you have the full copy as well as the executive summary. Just a quick overview.

1:09:40CGA prepared the planning analysis, working closely with county staff, going through county records to determine what had been approved in the moratorium area. Basically we worked on the supply side of the equation. Lambert advisory Prepared the economic and housing analysis that's basically the demand side of the analysis to determine what uh working together and with county

1:10:10staff we determined what had been built and then uh taking out uh subtracting that from the entitlements, determining how many uh how much potential there is for multifamily development in the morning. Yeah. The exciting part of the study is really the demand analysis, which uh Eric Lif of Lambert Advisory will present. But I just did want to give you the overview if you have any questions for our part of the analysis or for uh Lambert's part of the analysis uh were available.

1:10:40Uh but uh at this point I'll turn it over to Eric Lif of Lambert Advisory who can present the report.

1:10:46Madam Chair, quick question? Yeah. So was it just the demand analysis that was done? Or is there

1:10:50a No, no, it's uh we we uh we actually did the supply analysis, what's available, what's out there, what's been approved basically, uh, and then the demand analysis by Lambert. Uh

1:11:02any any economic effects of anal analysis?

1:11:05Uh I'll uh I guess I'll let Eric uh explain that, but it's basically yeah, how what is the d what is the current demand and what and projected demand for future housing. That's what I mean by by housing demand or multifamily. So

1:11:16But no economic analysis.

1:11:18Um I'm not sure if we touch on that. I'll let Eric Eric explain that part of it.

1:11:22Okay. They didn't do one. Thank there's no yeah, that was what the regional planning council went first.

1:11:29Mm.

1:11:32Thank you. Uh again, Eric Lyff, Lambert Advisory. To answer your question, there was a quite a bit of economic analysis that was conducted. Let me, if I can, just go kind of go through this presentation and then be, you know, we can interact during the presentation or certainly take questions after.

1:11:52To to be clear, um there were two key um

1:11:59uh sc pieces of a scope that we were focusing on. The the primary fo w the primary task which you know it's as as far as our organization with with the county was to answer the question of you know with this temporary moratorium Is the MAB, the Moritarium area boundary, oversaturated with multifamily entitlements? That was a clear directive within our scope of service. The second area of the scope was

1:12:29really a broad analysis of economic conditions. It was real it's used for data gathering, obviously, number one, to support our primary task. And then two, provide enough information and data for future housing policy and planning initiatives. It doesn't necessarily come to any conclusions. But if if you've seen and we have produced a report, it is quite comprehensive. There's an executive summary that provides a very concise summary, but with a lot of data, and

1:12:59then there's the backup within the report with all of what it does is has comprehensive economic demographic data, housing supply information, all the way from units and structure to typology and tenure. We looked at multifamily housing specifically. Development trends, pricing, occupancy, demand forecasting, and then we just did an overview of affordability, and just to understand where those gaps are, a lot of that from published information from the University of Florida Schinberg Center for Housing Studies. So the

1:13:30presentation today really focuses on this top question, which is the moratorium and the oversaturation in terms of entitlements. We've been through the MAB study area. I think it's very important to understand when we started this project back in July, the original moratorium, as as as it had been alluded to earlier, was a little bit more constricted. It did not go down to the county line and it did not stretch a little bit further east. We actually were not made aware of the expanded boundary until late February. So we

1:14:00had to we went back and in this short period of time because we were instructed to have uh information available by the third week of March that um we had to re kind of revisit all of the economic, demographic, and housing data uh within a couple of week period of time, which we were able to accomplish. Um and so that is Now included within the report. Um Very quickly, some of the findings. First of all, in for the MAB, we look at total housing

1:14:31units developed by decade, breaking it out between single-family condo, multifamily greater than 10 units, and multifamily less than 10 units. This information is from the Pasco County Property Appraiser database. This is not our data, this is actually data that we utilize as a basis for analyzing development by decade. And a couple of key points. One, as you can see, since 1990, the past 30 years, there's been 800 plus housing units built within the MAB, total housing units built within the MAB over, you know, annually over

1:15:01that period of time. It's been, you know, you obviously had the peak in the 2000s, but you still had some strong development. Development both in the 90s and between 2010 and 2020, which started in in that period started off relatively slowly due to the Great Recession and a slowdown in housing. And the other key point here is that you, you know, initially in the MAB, you had a heavy dominance of single-family development. And over the last couple of decades, you're starting to see a little bit of a balance now with multifamily development, where it's gone from 99% of the of the development

1:15:31pattern in the 90s down to 84%, 2000s, and now it's like 67, 69% within the past decade. And then the 2020s is only, you know, not even two years of data really available at the time. And you're seeing even a further balance. But that that the trend really we look at the previous three decades. In comparison, I just wanted to show the development patterns of Pasco County comparatively over the last 30 years, if you took 90s to 2020. And again, you can see it's a little more, it's not quite

1:16:01as pronounced, but you can see that there is again a balance with multifamily development, and that demand is there and being accommodated. And so, um, and again, you know, the the countywide you've been building.

1:16:17Madam Chair. Yeah. Quick question on that slide and even the previous one, if you could. Uh on the previous slide even showed like condos like uh previous two segments where like just Tens and In twenty. Like zero condos. Anyway, I didn't

1:16:32want to ask that question.

1:16:33Was that I have any reason why condos like all of a sudden were come

1:16:37out of favor? I have n I I wouldn't know why they weren't built in the twenty tens um or during that decade. I I think it's a good thing. Or twenty twenty. I mean they're not building them then. Yeah, I guess uh uh I mean first of all I mean as far as I would understand, um the the shift to multi family's been shipped has been to rental. Um and the condominium it's just it it I don't know why I couldn't tell you why that demand wasn't there during that period. That wasn't you know that's that's but this but this is development patterns that are directed from the you know or from or

1:17:07directly from the property appraiser. So

1:17:09So I just I just went to the U L I conference in San Diego. And They're not really building condos. It it the market is rental. Like our generation is selling their houses, moving into apartments, they're moving around, living in different parts of the country. It's very

1:17:29slow on the conduct. You're exactly right. It's become much more trans.

1:17:32Rental is the trend.

1:17:33And the other point I want to make though, if we're looking specifically at the MAB, um, typically in a suburban type market, condominiums are not in favor. It's mostly rental and or single family homes. So condominiums traditionally are not built traditionally are not built within uh the you know the suburban areas, they're coastal coastal uh development patterns that that that supply that, you know, that provide that demand.

1:17:55The the other the other thing was the millenni the younger people who a lot of them who can work from home and w live anywhere. Also want mobility. options, they don't they move around the country. Um And so the rental is booming.

1:18:12Correct. And then again, you know, again, with the more suburban type development, that's you know, most people are are div are moving out there for, you know, the single family, for the space, for the family, you know, the family accommodations, both, you know, larger house and land. Um, and then the other factors the multifamily provides them for many years obviously with the pr with the affordability, rental versus home ownership. Um And as you can start, you know, you will you'll see within statistics and it's well known today obviously of what's happening both in the for sale and rental market with price escalations, but prior

1:18:42to rental was uh was was typically uh more of a an attainable type housing than than it would be for single family.

1:18:52So again, you know, talking about the county, there's a little more balance. So I just wanted to show also a statistic between Pinellas County and Hillsboro County and look at their balance of development over the past several decades between single family and multifamily development. As you can see, Pinellas County as it continuously gets billed out, obviously the balance has shifted now heavily to multifamily. They just don't have the land availability for single family. But Hill is County, it too has actually had been a little bit more balanced from the beginning during the 90s and

1:19:23just kind of maintained that relative balance. But it's still, you know, you're talking about 30 plus percent multifamily versus you know close to 70 percent single family and consistently balanced in that regard. And again, if you remember, you know, Pasco County and the MAB or the MAB itself is now kind of reflective of what's going on, you know, that that that characteristic that characteristic in Hillsborough County. Um and then just looking at development. So between in the MAB, between 2000 and 2009, there was an average of 220 units built

1:19:53per annum during that decade, and then it kind of had modified to uh 130 units uh per year between 2010 and 2019. Again, a lot of that attributed to um coming out of the Great Recession where you had you know you had stagnation and and obviously a pause. On development in 2000, you know, in the early 2010 period. But now, if we look at a snapshot of the MAB in terms of multifamily, it's 97% occupied and rents have increased more than 15%

1:20:24over the past 12 months. So there's tremendous demand that's occurring within this market. And you can see it because a lot of it is obviously pent up. There's 248 units that have been built in the Past two years. However, there's 552 units that are currently under construction within that that are going to be delivered within a 12-month period, and then there's another uh eight hundred and thirty-eight units that have just started uh the construction process and should be delivered between 23 and 2023 and 2024. So this demand is obviously far outpacing what's occurred

1:20:54in the in in previous periods, uh, and it's showing you though that. that multifamily demand is is is is there and being supported and continuously the occupancy doesn't even take a corresponding hit with all this new development.

1:21:09Um in f in the effort to uh determine demand, we utilized information, you know, first of all we looked at the historical development patterns, but it's very important when you make projections to be able to uh to look at um you know what is the population household growth and how does that affect um housing development both both by typology, single family and multifamily development. Um and this we don't, you know, we need to utilize information that's provided to us. Um and in this case we use data from the MPO. And you can see that from you know two during the the pre earlier decades,

1:21:39you know, 2000, 2010, in the study area population growth was you know in five five percent plus um per per annum, uh had modified in in you know between 2010 and 2020, but still a relatively stable 2% per annum comparative with the county, you know, far out paid. The county, which was showing growth of about 3% during the past decade, and modified to a little bit less than 2% from 20, I'm sorry, from 2000 to 2010, it was three percent, had modified from 2010 to 2020 to just

1:22:09below 2%. And then the MPO does make projections, they're long-term projections, uh, through 2045. Uh, and so you need to contemplate what that means because obviously there's cycles in development and cycles. In population growth. But in this case, the MPO is showing about 1.1% annual average annual growth in the MAB. And the county now is shifting and actually outpacing the MAB slightly to 1.35%. So we use this as the basis for determining demand, and then we make our own assumptions

1:22:40and analysis using multiple scenarios, what we'll call In this case, what we're calling a modest, which is basically mimicking or mirroring the MPO's projection data. Then we have a fair share analysis, which says the MAB will capture at least its fair share of the county's population growth going forward, which is a fair assumption, namely because it's far outpaced during the past several years. And then the last, we go a little bit more, you know. what we call an upper limit and

1:23:10we push, you know, we gonna go back to more historical um growth rates and growth rates that are kind of reflective of what's happening right now in the development. So we use all of these to kind of just gauge and and provide us a little bit of flexibility in in determining demand going forward. Um and in this case, what we had done is, you know, based upon those household demand projections, we looked at it in two fashions. One, we said, okay, what if it can what if the MAB were to develop uh uh more

1:23:40in line with what it was historically in terms of multifamily, where multi-f single family dominated at 80%, multifamily was lesser at about 20 percent. And then we did another analysis, we said Said, okay, let's shift to current patterns where you're seeing 68% single family, 32% multifamily. And you can see you know within the circles of where the average annual demand is. I mean, if the if the MAB captures just its fair share, it's it's growing at 100 to 150 units per year of multifamily, which is directly in line with historical trends or even below historical

1:24:10trends. And then if you shift to the upper, you've got an you know a demand of about a hundred.

1:24:17Which is, as you recall, is well below even what's under construction today.

1:24:23Um and then as as well. So you're

1:24:26saying the supply is below the demand?

1:24:29Uh no the supply is supply supply is outpacing demand right now. But what's supply is outpacing demand, correct. However, um it it's not typically you would see a corresponding impact. Well, that hasn't been delivered, but there are still two hundred and fifty units delivered and the occupancy is still strengthened, which means demand is the demand is outpacing that supply. But right now there's more There's more um there's more supply than there is um than than there has been historically and so uh based on theoretically it's it's outpacing demand, but

1:24:59somehow demand is these are just projections. Demand is actually that's why I'm saying if you went up to the upper level, that's what we're starting to achieve, the upper level and beyond of what's really happening. Again, I'm using statistics just to come up for demand demand. Okay. Does that is that

1:25:18So let me I'll keep going and then we can kind of we can revisit that. So as as Lewis had delu had had mentioned earlier, um CGA had took taken a look at the supply side in conjunction with the county to understand what are the entitlements that are remaining within B MAB. And so we looked at all the MPUDs and again uh collectively by MPUD had assessed what entitlements are remaining and it's difficult to see only because there's so much information on this chart. But the bottom line is if you

1:25:48look at the bottom, there's about 3400, 3450 total entitlements remaining in the MAB. That is according to the analysis that was done, you know, in collectively between the county and and CGA and Lambert. Right there, you know, obviously if we're talking about having built out 8,000 units per year on average in total households, housing units, we're seeing, you know, there's not much inventory or entitlement inventory remaining within the MAB applicable to both single family and multifamily development.

1:26:19Now not all of these entitlements have been designated single family or multifamily. Some if there is just you know they they're they're they're flexible. In this case we understand there's about nine hundred and fifty-three single family. Go ahead.

1:26:31Can you s which column shows the entitlements per And beauty.

1:26:37Um that are remaining. The um it says calculated remaining.

1:26:42It says LMN

1:26:43and calculated remaining.

1:26:47Yeah, but there's three thousand four fifty three.

1:26:49But there's no column of the total entitlements?

1:26:51That is t that's total entitlements. Three thousand four hundred. Well on the there's total entitlements, sure, on the left hand side. Uh on the on the left hand side of the chart. Well the bill is twelve and fifteen hundred.

1:27:00So there's no total actual entitlements, it's just the remaining and then the ones built.

1:27:06So the right, bottom right, multiple to fifteen hundred.

1:27:10So on the bottom of remaining multifamily is six hundred and eighty eight?

1:27:15Correct, that we can that that that we could tell that are designated. However, as part of that 3453, there's going to either be single, they're not dead there's a portion of it. So if you took the thirty-four fifty-three and you and you and you subtracted the nine fifty-three, right, there's and the six eighty-eight, the balance of that, the balance of that inventory is designated. It can be either single family or multifamily. And that's exactly what we use to determine. Determine the amount of multifamily that's left in a range. And that's, and you can see that's about 1200 to 1500 units

1:27:45of multifamily that remain. Again, it's it's variable only because we don't know. I mean it could be designated either. But if there's a bat, if you took out the single family already entitled and multifamily, the balance of that we did the split again between saying, okay, what if 20% were to be built out as multifamily or 30% were to be built out as multi-family? It would come out to be 1,200 to 1,500 units of multifamily entitled, remaining units that are entitled within the MAB. And so So the

1:28:13residential units from the county are the entitlements that are there? And then is there a reason Seven Oaks doesn't have the listed entitlements? And same with Conerton? It only shows that the multifamily built was five eighty two. There's the rest of the numbers are missing.

1:28:30Yeah, that's a good question. Because there's still entitlements there that haven't been used.

1:28:35They just put an app in for another one in the back last week. That already hasn't the application's already been submitted.

1:28:44So uh Nectarius Pietos Planning and Development Department, I think what you're what you're seeing is the interplay of the land use equivalency matrices. Right.

1:28:54But they still have a total of entitlements. And they should be listed on here because that's still an additional thousand plus multifamily units of entitlements that are not listed on here.

1:29:08Well I I think what's listed on here is what is what has been identified in the uh in those MPUDs. And as uh Mr. O'Lif has indicated, don't quite know which way they're going to go because of the land use equivalency matrix uh instruments that are in the MPUDs. So you have to project out and uh consider what might take place. And so those are the numbers that are on the uh side of the slide here.

1:29:37If we have all these on PUDs and they have the entitlements Who's to say if they're going to utilize their entitlements or not then? Last month.

1:29:49Um I think that would be the market demand. That would influence the property owners and the developers as to what

1:29:56they would. I I mean I would agree with so like in in Starkey Ranch, they have a lot more um units that they could have built than what they built.

1:30:06That's

1:30:06and

1:30:07I think

1:30:07that's very typical.

1:30:08That's very typical in this environment where you have a lot of invi environmental sensitive lands where you can't build everyone. Right. So

1:30:18Can we go through the conclusion? Can I quit?

1:30:22Commissioner Fitzpatrick, she's asking a question.

1:30:27Are these entitlements never gonna be utilized though? Are these over entitlements that they're not gonna utilize? Because then it's not gonna be an accurate report. I

1:30:35I don't know. Sorry, this was a paper exercise. We don't know what the things are on the specific parcels on the specific project. So some of this to a certain extent was based on what's in the file, not what's on the ground.

1:30:48Yep, Madam Chair. To the commissioner's point. That was going to bring it up during my five-page response, and I'm going to have it in a few minutes. Um There are 307 units that are in are in for an application now that aren't listed as well. So in the area that you mentioned before not knowing if they're gonna be converted to multifamily. Somebody just submitted another application. So there's another 370, which I'll talk about later that it can be on top of it. So you're right, there are some that we're

1:31:18not aware of because they are coming. They just put another application in. Now he wouldn't have gotten that. It wouldn't have been included support. So to his credit he doesn't have that because it came in after he did his report. It just happened like a week ago.

1:31:29Right, so Madam Clerk

1:31:30so there's a lot more there

1:31:31So why don't we let him finish and then we'll say that I know it's a good question, but let's let him finish because he may address it. But you just stated

1:31:39that there is and you could have built additional units in Starkey Ranch. Not me, I'm not the developer. Well, they could have built additional units in Starkey Ranch, but they chose not to. So those entitlements are still out there but they're not gonna utilize it or they may not have space to build it or whatever the issue is Are they never gonna eat? If they're not if they don't want the space to utilize it, then they no longer have

1:32:06those entitlements. It's very, very common for uh development to have more I think it's the norm to have more entitlements than they ever deliver.

1:32:15Correct. And that these numbers are gonna be skewed if there's no more room to build those entitled multifamily units. Well I he may have that in his conclusion. I don't know.

1:32:24I

1:32:24haven't

1:32:24read it. Can we but um We can we can address those things at the end.

1:32:29Can i can I just touch on what she asked just before?

1:32:33I would appreciate that.

1:32:33Because it's I don't think she they answered her question. I know,

1:32:36but he hasn't finished yet.

1:32:37But no Terry didn't answer the question.

1:32:39Can we let it I think I really want him to finish his report, make a list of your questions? I think it's extremely

1:32:46important that we hear the answer to the question.

1:32:51I'm gonna let him

1:32:52finish his report and then you can we can get dive into those questions. Okay? Go ahead. Sorry.

1:32:57Thank you. Um so in conclusion, basically based Upon again, based upon the information that we are utilizing in terms of oops, sorry, in terms of um entitled units, right? Which is about 12, which we're real based upon this analysis, is about 1200 to 1500 units. And then looking at from purely a market perspective and understanding demand, which there's a demand for at least 1300 to 1700 units per Year over the

1:33:27next 10 years, that leaves you with an absorption of about six to ten year period to use up all the entitlements that are at least that we've designated today and that we've understood. If that changes, obviously then the analysis would change, and you know, you would calibrate that with demand. But the bottom line of the demand, that that's the baseline from which you can you can then reassess this if the entitlement number changes. The the question is some of some of the um some sites might not be um you know highly conducive to multifamily development because that could

1:33:57shorten the time frame. Although, you know, y you you There might be other sites that that eventually there could be allocated. So we we s you know, based upon this analysis, it's about a six to ten year absorption period to to to to use up those mul those multifamily uh entitlement. In terms of a planning horizon, when we look at near term, we call it about a five to seven year time front time frame. Obviously, you're going to use these up, these entitlements up within the near-term time frame. In in our estimation, in our understanding, that does not

1:34:28represent an oversaturation of multifamily units. Um especially if you're looking at longer-term horizon and longer-term planning, then you would go, you would want an inventory that goes beyond six to ten years. So that's uh, you know, it's just it it's just a conclusion based upon the supply and demand analysis. Um and then, you know, whichever way it goes, The county would need to consider what it means to, you know, if if if if the if the moratorium stays in place, what does it mean in terms of being able to accommodate

1:34:58this demand in terms of you know infrastructure improvements, housing affordability, and so forth, if we're just to you know keep the moratorium in place? It wouldn't obviously shift somewhere else else, but what would be the cost of that both from the infrastructure and affordability standpoint, which this study does. does not address, it just opens up that idea that needs to be addressed in subsequent uh you know subsequent studies. But again, you know, a lot of the background data that can start helping the county understand what those are is in the body of this report. So that's

1:35:29that's the conclusions from the supply and demand choices.

1:35:32Can I get to some of those?

1:35:34Okay, so Commissioner Moore has some questions and then um then we want to answer um and I want to dive into her question a little more too. So Commissioner Moore has the floor.

1:35:44Thank you, Madam Chairman. Thanks for taking this on. I respect how tough this is. I mean it's it's it's hard to figure out where all these are, what what's coming online. It's difficult. Um couple issues, questions I need to bring up. Um One of the headline numbers based on your own information report um we f I feel it should be at least eight twelve units delivered within the next twelve months, not five fifty-two. So if you go back to on page 40 of the report, I don't know the I don't see the pages number. If you look at page 40 of the

1:36:14report, um you can clearly see in the chart where the 552 number comes from. And there's two complexes listed that make that. Mm.

1:36:28Yeah.

1:36:31Right. Yeah.

1:36:35Um I I think we outlined it in here though. That's that that's what I'm trying to get to.

1:36:39Yeah, I mean if you have page forty from the report, but If I can

1:36:43go back.

1:36:44It's the overview.

1:36:47And you'll help

1:36:47provide

1:36:48it.

1:36:49So I've got to do it. Right, right, but um i it w the number I mean I'm saying we've uh we identified five fifty two right currently under construction with another eight thirty eight that should tie to that table.

1:36:59Right. So uh

1:37:01Yeah, but that right, but that that number is a good thing.

1:37:03Yeah, it says expected to be delivered this year, correct? Right, right. So I guess the question is which is it, because it depends on what page you read. Um because that like one of the that complex is always one of the complexes always said that's not included in that has signage up to be open in twenty twenty two.

1:37:18Right. I mean the way we looked at it is don't forget we did had to do this in two separate phases. Remember we did all of our background work back in July and there was an inventory of what was under construction and a part of some of these these developments that we now show as under some of the newer ones like I believe it's Lexington and Ascend, I think it is on the um that those are at that time were not considered to be under construction. So those are newly introduced. So we're just correlated.

1:37:44This

1:37:44is not the right screen here.

1:37:46Yeah, so but if you if on pay on page fifty two it says the complex yeah wasn't included in that five fifty two and as I quote it says expected to be live delivered later this year. So it should have been included.

1:37:58Well that was for the entitlement, so we actually took it out of the entitlement.

1:38:00So that's actually under construction. So if you can pull up we have some uh why

1:38:03are they not pulling it up?

1:38:04Yeah, and we have some pictures for you as well that show what do you what do you look at what you need to consider because

1:38:10he's asking us to look at page forty. You're not on page forty. Yeah, but we're on the page page.

1:38:18Exactly. I've got it pulled up on my iPad.

1:38:20Yeah.

1:38:20Are you are we not able to keep

1:38:23Well we have the PowerPoint up.

1:38:28I refer

1:38:29to the full report because I don't I didn't have a PowerPoint.

1:38:31Yeah. Well for for the people that aren't here, let's try and pull up the um But

1:38:37the the report's attached to the agenda, so for people that aren't here can pull up the report off the agenda.

1:38:41Yeah. So it's page forty of the report. And on then on you go to page fifty-two. It says the complex wasn't included in that 552. But it's still s quotes expected to be delivered later this year, so I don't understand the contra you know contradicts it. Can you pull those pictures up?

1:39:01I'm trying to get a distinction of what is considered under construction and not under construction. because I'm showing four walls on those in a roof. So those are clearly Far along of the construction, which probably

1:39:17right, right. So let me ask you.

1:39:20Is it what what what count are you coming up with what were determined to be under construction? I put those two under construction in two different buckets only because the timing issue. It's a timing issue, don't forget. So

1:39:31that number should be thirteen ninety. That number should be thirteen ninety because if you look how far along they all are, that actual total

1:39:39And we right we have thirty nine. It does say thirty nine, you might have to do it. It's thirteen eighty two.

1:39:48I mean the five fifty two plus the eight thirty nine is thirteen hundred is thirteen hundred. If you look at the headline

1:39:53numbers based on your information, it says you you're basically saying Five hundred and fifty two units delivered within the next twelve months, right?

1:40:01Correct.

1:40:02Right. All right. That should be eight twelve. That number should be eight twelve there. Delivered in the next twelve months. Uh

1:40:10I I I I can't tell, but I can't tell you.

1:40:17I'm just telling you what it should say because that's look at that. Understood. I mean it's a good thing. Yeah, but from what I

1:40:22hear, those may not get washers and dryers for years. But

1:40:27refrigerators. They're moving pr they're moving pretty fast. I don't know about

1:40:31it.

1:40:32I guess what it might be I don't agree with the distinction between site work and early construction and every day.

1:40:38And we'll just stop we at this point we just put everything under construction.

1:40:41Yeah, that's that's my big So we go back I I we'll go back to the conclusion. We go back to the conclusion, Paige, the very final. Of his? Okay, so that's up front

1:40:51here.

1:40:52Make sure I'm looking at these numbers correctly here.

1:41:03Yeah, 'cause yeah, 'cause your your report too says on the one on fifty two says the compli or page fifty two said to be delivered this year. So I don't one one page said one thing, one page said a different thing.

1:41:12Could it be a uh you with

1:41:13me?

1:41:13Scribbers, yes, I understand. I

1:41:15mean

1:41:15we uh again, and I'm not make I don't sit here and make any excuses. Um This was a pretty pretty mad scramble to the finish because we were told at the end of February to expand the MEB. But I'm not I understand it should all be coordinated and it will be up to I just

1:41:28want to make sure you know again listen, you know, if goes to the staff, it goes to us. We just want to make sure everything's correct.

1:41:33I understand. Completely. And I appreciate that, yes.

1:41:36Okay, so it states forecast demand um within the moratorium area is thirteen hundred to seventeen hundred units for the next two years. Is that correct? Okay, forecast. We're saying that twelve to fifteen hundred roughly are unbuilt in title, correct?

1:41:52Correct.

1:41:52Okay. So we're almost there for unbuilding title. If those were to be built, that would meet that would basically meet the demand.

1:42:00Correct.

1:42:01Okay, cool. So if there's one thousand three hundred and ninety units total under construction right now That's what we came up with. So I have a delta of eight thirty-eight. If I add the eight thirty-eight to the Twelve hundred. Or subtract it, I should say, subtract it from the twelve hundred to fifteen hundred. The Delta right now would it's less than four hundred from your bottom number of what would need to be completed to

1:42:31meet the demand for the next ten years. So if less than four hundred of the entitled of the entitled units are actually built, which could potentially be one more apartment complex. That means the demand for the next ten years and you don't have the answer. I'm just making a statement. But that's correct, right? That means that demand would be met according to the support.

1:42:52If we have the right entit if we are e if we have the right entitlement, if you have the right entitlement number

1:42:56of in that case. Yep. So one of the ones that would come online, for example, we just got word that there's another one that just got a pre app last week for three hundred and seventy units. would actually be over, that would make up that delta. We would already meet the demand for the next 10 years with that one. From what's currently being under construction right now. Forget the rest of the entitlements. We can actually scrap that now, literally, because we just made that up. If that were to come online, the one that was went through the p went through

1:43:26the application, which I'm gonna assume they're going to, well they wouldn't go through that you know, they wouldn't go that far along. It's met. So the next ten years of according to this report of what's needed needed is done. So we met the demand.

1:43:46So I'm not I'm not entirely clear on on that math, but I don't understand.

1:43:51But I a question because um you Uh you're included entitled but not yet built in that number?

1:44:00So okay, so their numbers state thirteen hundred to seventeen hundred units for the next two years.

1:44:05Are uh that's demand. That's

1:44:07demand.

1:44:07That's demand.

1:44:08That's demand, right? There's currently twelve to fifteen hundred Unbuilt, entitled. Entitled, yeah. Entitled, right? So if I take that and I look at the current numbers, right? So there's 1390 units total under construction right now. That includes site work and early construction.

1:44:24Those have been taken out. They're not in that

1:44:26right. So if I take, but if I pull out what we're in include, which is I guess that 838 number, was it am I have that right, Andy? Am I doing my number? Right. Yeah. Um add that, it even added to the one that's coming online. Again, that it's it's the demand's there. It's it's

1:44:46well

1:44:46you made an advantage. It's washed, right?

1:44:49It's the twelve. It it's a difficult thing, but unless you took the time to call the developers who have remaining entitlements and ask them if they're gonna use them The norm is There and Terry could probably Or a develop if a developer was here. I'm not sure you can I mean you can't say that all those entitlements are gonna get built. It's very rare that someone uses all their entitlements. Now I would think in this

1:45:19market today, with multifamily being such uh uh a high priced um Highly desired. High desired um product. that there may be people going around looking for entitlements and seeing if there's any land left to put some on because the demand is so high. Maybe they're gonna try and Scrape up every one of those uh Potentially.

1:45:44Especially in you know to add that in this area, which is a highly desirable area.

1:45:48Accessibility

1:45:48neighborhood, everybody.

1:45:54But that that's why I brought the one that is actually just went through the it's going through the application process now because you can actually But there may be some that

1:45:59has no landline.

1:46:10Um any of those neighborhoods I mean.

1:46:12Well yeah, they're building two it was making that up. Yeah. There's uh I don't know if it was the One I don't think the one that was approved by some of this board recently across the street from the one at Lexington Oaks, that was the industrial site over by Compark. So there's another one. That one's being built. That's I don't even think that's included. But I could add that on top of it again.

1:46:32But to go to Commissioner O Fitzpatrick's question that we really are I am curious about in your analysis. Um, so you did not call out these entitlements, but you lumped them in that number to the right? Is that kind of what you're saying? Because that line. was blank. And we know because we've been going through some hearings that there are a couple parcels that Or in the um whatever Terry that term just Terry just said that I forget that has the L

1:47:02in it. Um Yeah. There are some parcels that can either be residential or office. Correct. Converted. And were those The but they didn't seem to be called out in your report, right? Yeah.

1:47:17I can't go through every I I I won't be able to go through

1:47:19the It's the chart with all the uh the matrix, yeah.

1:47:23Yeah.

1:47:24That one. So we are curious why Um Remaining um the remaining ones that are available which seems to me We had that number from that hearing. I don't it's in the thousands.

1:47:38That's in the remaining right? It's thirty four fifty three. That's the remaining

1:47:42Where do you s but it's not there, unless m unless mine is incorrect. The matrix? I have I have nothing under remaining In either column. There's no number there. Do you guys have something different?

1:47:55It's it's highlighted in the orange on the bottom. Is that what you're looking at?

1:48:00No. If you take the Seven Oaks, AKA Saddlebrook Village Um and you go across

1:48:08it.

1:48:09It says 2,900 single families. five hundred and eighty two multifamily have been built and then you get to the remaining The remaining, there's not there's it's blank.

1:48:26So that's the number we're questioning. Okay.

1:48:29I I'm I I Yeah. Can I just put it on can I just conclude on this?

1:48:35Yeah.

1:48:37So seven yeah, seven oaks is going to be a uh a difficult MPUD DRI to work through. Um we had a number of those types of MPUDs where uh it was very h hard to parse the information in in the in the documents. Um

1:48:59That there are going to be entitlements left on the table is is true. And that's going to depend on the geography of each MPUD and what each MPUD has actually uh accomplished on the ground. So th there's going to be a speed break is the way I've I've been thinking about it, where uh there's going to be some MPUDs where we don't quite know what the final conclusion is going to be.

1:49:25Yeah.

1:49:26But the limiting factors are going to be how much land they have remaining and what kind of land that is in terms of wetlands Or other types of barriers to development that are just gonna be on site. And so what we felt in terms of the study as when it was produced to us that 1200 to 1500 units that you see on the sidebar there is sort of an upper bound number. And uh then you're gonna

1:49:56you're gonna have to factor the this the uncertain speed break that may actually lower those numbers uh when we proceed into the future and actualize these entitlements.

1:50:08No Chair Could just continue on with the rest of that. Yeah. Thank you, ma'am. It it's true, Terrence, just stand it real quick, because the the gentleman wouldn't know. Um it's true though there was an application. You d you mentioned um the Seven Oakes uh impudent, for example, right? Was there not an application for three hundred and ninety units in the entitled area that just came out?

1:50:29Uh I I think it was uh on the north end of southern. Yeah, yeah, it's

1:50:32but it's in the imp it's within the MPU data.

1:50:34I think so. I think I saw something.

1:50:35Yeah, yeah it did. Yeah, because we get the notices of all applications. So so you could actually again, he wouldn't have had time to see it because he already had the completed, which is done like a week or two ago. You could actually subtract that at well. So there's an example of entitlements being used. If I look through the report, um when you t you spoke to some industry professionals, right, when you were doing your report and stuff, um didn't they mention in because I think you I saw it in your report that the demand was plateauing a little bit though?

1:51:06Well they stated that Japan was plateauing.

1:51:07I I think I mean it's plateauing but it's still sta it's still stay but I but it's still robust. Yeah so that's been but in the report is it only naturally cycles, but we say yeah, I

1:51:15mean

1:51:15it is kind it is it is it is it is reaching. It's you know, it's at least right now at top of a cycle. Right. Um but it's still robust compared to historical levels and should and should remain that way. Um and that there was no there was very little concern about the fact that even with all of the deliver uh deliveries that are coming online that occupancy will take a major hit. We're very confident that these will be absorbed and the occupancy will s remain stable above ninety four ninety five percent.

1:51:41Okay, thanks. Well I'm gonna close. I know other people have probably have questions and things, but again I just want to go back to something I've been talking about for a number of years and I'm glad this report came out because it it justifies what I've been saying is that if you look at the total number of units that are are being built, total number units are being entitled, according to the report, what's needed in the next ten years, this demand's already been met. Right, it's already medic. Now we just heard a report from the Regional Planning Council that says we're gonna be we have a shortfall of 150,000 jobs. Right? And you look along these major corridors,

1:52:12what should be there? Well, they stated earlier that you should not be switching out. Industrial, but they when they said industrial, they also included and I asked that question office and even retail job creating sites for additional multifamily along those corridors, and that's also why I asked that question to the regional planning council too. If that area along that 54 5456 corridor in that intersection of 75, if that's where you should be having these job creating sites, created sites and and save those. And that's what they stated as

1:52:42well. So, you know, just think, listen, I'm only here for unfortunately for six more months. But what I'm hoping for, six months after that, is that you know, future boards take into consideration what the regional planning council said, what some of us have been saying on the dais for a number of years, is that we need to save these sites. for job creation, not just for today, but for future generations. And we look at the impact Some residential has, including multifamily. It's a fact. You know, it's it it it's meets

1:53:13a it's a a bigger demand on fire rescue, it's a bigger demand on the sheriff's office. S our services as a total, right? I mean am I not correct? I mean typically I was asking

1:53:24about

1:53:24So

1:53:24you you're singing out multifamily uh should

1:53:26I should

1:53:27we do all housing? Well

1:53:28this is are you saying

1:53:29we should

1:53:29all

1:53:30housing

1:53:30this

1:53:30is

1:53:30a report of on multifamily. We're not having a report on single family, that's what I'm talking about.

1:53:34Well

1:53:34I'm just asking

1:53:35you if

1:53:36you think

1:53:37we should have a moratorium on housing.

1:53:38Maybe you should ask for a um a study on that as I asked for one for this and then we when it breaks they bring it back we'll have that conversation. But today we're talking about multifamily Um so again I think points proven, I appreciate it, and uh with that I

1:53:53So but y uh w uh your c conclusion was what? Can you s state your conclusion again?

1:53:59Sure.

1:54:01Basically um yes that Based upon the analysis that we have in hand in terms of entitlements, there's approximately 1,200 to 1,500 multifamily units unbuilt, unentitled, remaining within the MAB. There is demand for a minimum 1300 to 1700 units demanded over that 10-year period. Um which would indicate then you would use up those entitlements within s six to ten years. The

1:54:32question posed was is there an oversaturation of multifamily within the MAB? And from our conclusion the answer is there is no oversaturation.

1:54:40So what is there will s will meet the demand, but it's not oversaturated? Correct. Okay. Um did you have more questions? Because I I I what is the I have one and maybe And I've asked this and no one's been able to give me this answer. What is the and maybe there isn't a correct answer, is there a good ratio for us to understand What a good balance is between single family, multifamily, or that's

1:55:08that's the

1:55:08question.

1:55:09But there really isn't any. Every area is unique. However, that's the one thing we wanted to point out, you know, to your neighbors. Um again, it's a land availability, but your neighbors, uh both Pinellas and Hillsboro. Again, Hillsboro is very, very you know, Hillsborough the MAB now Matches basically what's occurring in Hillsborough almost exactly in terms of that balance.

1:55:32I'm having trouble understanding what this says. I just have a hard time understanding your crap. Um so what is the percentage of single family to multifamily in Hillsborough?

1:55:43In Hillsborough? Yeah. Um, it's on the bottom. So during take take take nineteen nineties, it was sixty percent sixty four percent single family to thirty six percent multi. Okay, and then that fluctuated modestly between you know two thousand and two thousand ten, so kind but it always stays in that sixty five to seventy percent range for single family versus multifamily. Right

1:56:05in Pinellas County it's

1:56:08much more much more much more multifamily. They don't have landability obviously is Hillsborough County or Pasco. Okay, because multifamily because they're

1:56:15built out and they're going up.

1:56:16Correct, correct. And you and they've even started out because they were small, they even started out with a much higher proportion share of of multifamily. But now you can see in you know between 2010 and 2020, 31% were single family. So the balance is multifamily.

1:56:30And what is our percentage?

1:56:36So MA B you can see from nineteen nineteen.

1:56:42eighties. Overall, that's that's total development. That's tot yes. Of all existing inventory, it's eighty six percent. But I looked at it per decade. So Okay, what

1:56:51what is the percentage of single family to multifamily in the MA B?

1:56:55In total units, eighty six percent. Eighty six percent single family.

1:56:58That's very high.

1:56:59It's

1:57:00slanted much more towards

1:57:01and you can see single family. Correct.

1:57:04Yeah. So you know if we had gone back twenty years and we're planning this area I would have said The intersection uh and uh of seventy five and fifty two and fifty-six and that whole quadrant would be where you want your Density of multifamily. I mean I think planners would would tell you that. It's you know, yeah. That's where your towns build up, is at the intersection of your infrastructure. That's just historical. I mean that's just

1:57:34historical. So you got you got a college there, you got a mall there, you have two malls. You have two malls there. That's where density goes. Um the

1:57:44So on the weird

1:57:46anomaly over there.

1:57:47On page ten in t in the executive summary portion of the uh study

1:57:53It uh looks at the MA B, the moratorium area boundary, the study area, and it says that prior to twenty ten, single family dominated in the MA B at more than eighty percent of inventory. So the market was bringing, let's say, eighty twenty balance uh between single family and multifamily. And then during the following decade, tw twenty ten to twenty twenty, the mix was more at sixty-eight percent single family and thirty-two percent multifamily. So again the market brought you a kind of

1:58:23seventy thirty balance in the next decade. Um overall I think there was a number in the in the report too that indicated um

1:58:34Uh in eleven eighty-nine. Eighty-nine percent of Pasco County is single family, eleven percent is almost almost eleven percent is multifamily. So you you see that uh also market ratio uh playing out overall in the county, uh ninety ten ratio w overall. So Where the right balance is to your question, commit um Madam Chair, is Probably uh it's a policy decision on the part of the Board of County

1:59:05Commissioners. Uh but the market is basically telling you anywhere between seventy thirty to ninety ten would be a uh a balancing Where you would wanna do it. Target.

1:59:17Yeah, and then and so what happens if we don't if we don't supply that demand? Someone else is gonna supply it. It's gonna be Hernando County. And um

1:59:27and and that may be fine. We just got

1:59:29a Regina

1:59:30Play

1:59:30County told us we're short of 150,000 jobs.

1:59:33Right. And that and that like you said that's a policy decision. I mean Martin County said no one could build over two stories and they can't build any more and they're

1:59:43four stories.

1:59:44Of four stories and yeah they they don't want any growth and You know? So I mean that is a policy decision for us, but we will get their traffic. We will get their traffic without any Income. From me. So that's the only thing. Yeah.

1:59:59But here's the thing. So they're telling us the market's saturated, so it's a balance for the next ten years. We don't need any more apartments in this area, we're good. That's what it's saying. The other thing, and again back to the Regional Planning Council report. We need to go create jobs to get about a balance. And when you create more jobs and people don't have to drive as far, you'll help your traffic. Right now I mean Diverging Diamond just opened. Yeah. Um There's only so many improvements we're gonna be able to make. The traffic that's in that area right now, and Commissioner Moore, how long

2:00:29does it take you to get to Luxing How to go hit balls?

2:00:32Pardon me, Pasado one?

2:00:33How

2:00:33long

2:00:33does it take you to get to Lexington Oak to go hit balls from Seth Weightman?

2:00:36I got stuck. It was um it was like forty minutes one back. Forty.

2:00:38Five and a half minutes away from my house. And it used to be Yeah, it used to be five minutes away. So so we don't need any more saturation with the heavy density. Uh I know cities will grow that way and and in time we may ship like Pinellas, but what Penellas did as well, their jobs ratio is phenomenal. That's when we default. So I think this moratorium is a very important thing. is solid here to keep in place for ten years. And then I think you can go look at maybe we should go a little bit further down that 54 corridor and 56 corridor to find out how far down we want to go to take a look at it

2:01:08as well.

2:01:08Okay. Well I I

2:01:10got

2:01:11to I know he said something

2:01:12he can't see.

2:01:12Well no, well I mean I gotta set the record straight. You don't have a moratorium now. It's expired. And you can't put it back in place. With all due respect to the consultant, I you you A moratorium is a fi i it can only be put in place for a finite period of time and there has to be regulations that you're working on developing to get To fix the problem. And that's not happened here.

2:01:38Okay, so what what do you recommend from what you're s you're seeing? What's the next steps that the commission do to try to not this m not let this problem get worse?

2:01:46That's what you can do, say no.

2:01:47This is the This is a Something that you should be addressing in your evaluation and appraisal report in the comprehensive plan. That's what they're there for and you may need to down plan some areas in for in your comprehensive plan. there are legal consequences to that. But if that's where the board is truly going, that's the fix is to is to Not approve.

2:02:16Over development. I mean that the Commissioner the Chair is right.

2:02:23the MPUDs that historically have been approved in this county as other counties Um

2:02:32Don't look into real scale of the land that they're trying to build on. They are well overentitled for the land that they can they can build on, so their when they get done With a quality development, they're gonna have lots of units left over. That's that's the way these approvals are done. And when you put put in a land use equivalency matrix on top of that, It's a good one.

2:03:04it jacks it it it moves the total build out of a of a community to maximum. So you will get the highest density based on the approvals that you've given because the the the the whole purpose of the equivalency matrix is to allow flexibility and so they can change the development community can change over the approvals from what the board granted to either what market trends are or to max

2:03:34out their site.

2:03:37I so I just wanna say I don't think there's anybody on this board that doesn't think jobs are number one issue. I think job creation and attraction of high paying jobs. should be our absolute number one focus and that's why I work on Workforce development uh so passionately because I think that is a real tool for us to use. to attract high paying jobs and I especially love manufacturing jobs. Um

2:04:08But um And I'm not I'm not saying that Ms. Commissioner Moore should have more apartments in his district. I'm not saying that at all. I'm just saying that That I'm talking about planning trends and and the way communities grow Where there's infrastructure like that. That's where density tends to go. Um, just look at it around the world. So um Um but

2:04:38I do think as we go through our comp plan we have some policy decisions to make. And and I think we need to listen to our community. And we need to l you know, really get an understanding of what it means when we make decisions that we make I made a a statement here that today that um not statement. I I mentioned that there used to be a number that that was applied to the value of a house, whether it added um to the tax base or

2:05:08took from the tax base. Well, does that mean we only want to allow houses that are five hundred thousand and over?

2:05:16I mean that's a policy decision. I mean that has but that has consequences because Um Because then the the housing costs are gonna go crazy. And if housing costs go crazy, then we're gonna have people who can't afford to live here and and w and they're gonna live in another county and they're gonna drive here. So You know, it's it's a balancing act of of making sure that we grow the way the best way that we can. And we make decisions that help guide that. And I think that's one of the reasons why you have to keep always adjusting your comp plan

2:05:46is so that you can Prepare. You know, for the next ten, twenty years on what you're doing. the right kind of growth is that the county wants. Commissioner Mariano.

2:05:56And and you know you bring up a good point as far as you look at, you know, does the residential growth hurt or help as far as your overall budget? And and I will go with you that I think those higher end homes they pay their own way and then some.

2:06:08They add too.

2:06:09And and and that was also part of what we also looked at years ago was where do the executives want to live? Right. They want to live in the high end homes. That's right. So if I'm gonna go focused on building something, I want to build the high end homes where the executives want to live the where they may bring their business and obviously creating amenities and other quality of life things that we're doing with environmental lands to stimulate that to come to bring them.

2:06:31So it makes me nervous that we're approving all these forty foot lot neighborhoods. Um But We also have an affordability problem, so what's the right balance? And I really, you know, I'm almost like bring the U L I back in to help us because Um You know, i I think you brought it up um that in Two Rivers Ranch The high end homes in that development are being built right in Hillsborough County. And we're getting the forty foot lines. Yeah. Um

2:07:02so what what is it that is happening here that we're not getting more of the big houses? I I you know, we have potentially A new sporting complex coming. And I drove some folks that are interested in that youth sporting complex around. Looking for housing stock. And we done have it. We didn't have it for what they're looking for. And so how do we ensure that we are providing that range. You know, is that a market thing

2:07:32or do we help direct that? Um Those those are things we have to talk about. W but in my opinion we cannot fill up with forty foot lots in this volcano.